Spot Market Transactions Sluggish, Alumina Port Inventory Slightly Increased [SMM Morning Comment on Alumina]

SMM Morning Comment on Alumina for February 28

Futures Market: During the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 futures contract opened at 3,382 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,395 yuan/mt and a low of 3,352 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 3,365 yuan/mt, down 4 yuan/mt or 0.13%. The open interest stood at 168,000 lots.

Ore Market: As of February 27, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was reported at $96.26/mt, down $0.08/mt from the previous trading day, mainly due to further declines in caustic soda prices in Shandong. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price remained flat at $95/mt compared to the previous trading day, while the SMM Australian Bauxite CIF average price also remained unchanged at $95/mt.

Industry News:

1. According to SMM statistics on February 27, domestic port alumina inventory totaled 28,000 mt, an increase of 13,000 mt from the previous week.
2. According to a Reuters report, in response to US President Trump's statement that his administration would impose a 25% tariff on EU imports, a spokesperson for the European Commission stated that the EU would respond swiftly and firmly to unreasonable trade barriers that hinder free and fair trade. The spokesperson also emphasized that as the world's largest free trade market, the EU itself holds significant value for the US.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 27, the SMM Alumina Index showed a premium of 7 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 am.

Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On February 27, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina increased by 6,598 mt from the previous trading day to 109,300 mt. In Shandong, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 4,513 mt. In Henan, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 4,803 mt to 19,500 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered warehouse warrants remained at 0. In Gansu, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 3,009 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 1,795 mt to 82,200 mt.

Overseas Market: As of February 27, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $485/mt, with ocean freight rates at $19.75/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate sell price was around 7.29. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 4,236 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 855 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed.

Summary: Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stabilized, primarily due to increased demand for alumina exports and delivery warehouse transfers, which have supported alumina prices. In the short term, spot alumina prices in certain regions have rebounded slightly. However, overseas alumina prices have declined, and the export window remains largely closed. Delivery warehouse transfers cannot provide sustained demand, and the market expects some new alumina capacity to gradually come online. In the medium and long term, spot alumina prices are still under pressure. In the short term, spot alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment. Continuous attention should be paid to the profitability of alumina exports and changes in bauxite prices.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]